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WHO CAN REPRODUCE THEIR BEST IN TRAVERS?
By Jeremy Plonk
Horseplayerpro.com analyst |
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On the rarest of occasions, a late bloomer like Will's Way or Deputy Commander will step up and win the Travers. But the history of the Midsummer Derby, both recent and long-running, is that it takes a classic 3-year-old to garner the prize. Three of the past four Travers champs won at least one leg of the Triple Crown, and seven of the last nine finished in the top three in at least one of the Triple Crown races. In the last decade, all were at least major graded stakes winners on the trail leading up to the Triple Crown - so they were no "summer" chickens, but rather spring-time commodities. But the classic-placed runners in this year's Travers, Belmont winner DA'TARA and Preakness runner-up MACHO AGAIN, appear to have flaws. That opens the door for some of the spring's most accomplished sophomores.
Keys to the Travers:
Field Depth: Without BIG BROWN, the Travers certainly lacks top-level starpower. But it's a deep field of 12, including the winners of the G1 Wood (TALE OF EKATI), G1 Santa Anita Derby (COLONEL JOHN), G1 Belmont Stakes (DA' TARA), G2 Louisiana Derby (PYRO), G2 Jim Dandy (MACHO AGAIN), G2 Fountain of Youth (COOL COAL MAN), G2 Swaps (TRES BORRACHOS) and G2 Remsen (COURT VISION). Toss in a Canadian classic winner (HARLEM ROCKER) and a rising upstart (MAMBO IN SEATTLE) from the same Neil Howard barn that put a scare into Street Sense last year with the similarly-placed Grasshopper. If you're a speed-figure guru, no less than 7 runners posted Beyer Speed Figures of 97-plus in their most recent efforts.
Pace: A big field of 12 means separation anxiety will be a factor, so carving out the right trip could be key. DA' TARA wired the Belmont Stakes and appears to only know one gear. He should be joined by TRES BORRACHOS, who must pick up a mind-boggling 13 pounds off his Swaps win, and also longshot TIZBIG, who wheels back on just 6 days' rest for Allen Jerkens. DA' TARA was left wheezing after a :46-4/5 half-mile in the Jim Dandy, compared to the :48-1/5 pace he set in the Belmont Stakes. Neither TIZBIG nor TRES BORRACHOS has ever gone slower than :47-2/5, so expect the pace to be legitimate, but not lightning. The first-run closers could have the edge over the deeper late-runners.
Our Eyes: Visually, MAMBO IN SEATTLE's same-day win in the Henry Walton Stakes was superior to what I saw in the Jim Dandy, and the clock backed up my eyeballs. The colt so well-bred for 10 furlongs ran the 1-1/8 miles in the Jim Dandy in 1:50-4/5, a tick quicker than MACHO AGAIN's Jim Dandy over PYRO. While I'm hesitant to pronounce MAMBO IN SEATTLE as the division's "next coming," it will push me completely away from the Jim Dandy alumni and look elsewhere. No horse was better prepared for the Triple Crown than COLONEL JOHN, whose unfortunate Kentucky Derby run saw him eliminated at the start. Hey made a sensational middle-move that was lost in the blaze of glory that was BIG BROWN, only to falter when not wanting to change leads. His Swaps comeback was decent, but disappointing, and one can only assume that his preparation for this race is far more intense than his comeback prep. Wisely, he was pointed to this race nearly immediately after the Kentucky Derby, when turned out to the fields of bluegrass and not pressed upon to Pimlico and Belmont. Fellow Kentucky Derby entrants COURT VISION and PYRO appear to be doing as well now as they were in late spring, a sign that they could be prime candidates to rise back to the occasion.
Travers Counterpoint: Fellow Horseplayer PRO analyst Tim Turrell chimes in to say: "The 139th running of the prestigious Travers Stakes is shaping up to be an interesting heat with several familiar faces from the Triple Crown races and a couple intriguing newcomers. I've personally followed almost every one of these horses and here's my opinion. First, PYRO is overrated. If you look at his PPs, he's never really done ANYTHING. Sure, he's a good horse; but as the favorite here from post #11, no thanks! MACHO AGAIN is another fraud that needs a complete set-up to win. If you thought his win in the Jim Dandy was impressive, picking up staggering horses following a pace meltdown, than 'more power to ya!' I like COLONEL JOHN in here, and I'll tell ya why. I don't think this horse has come anywhere CLOSE to running his best race, and intrinsically has way more talent than the rest. He's a magnificent-looking animal and has been training fantastic. I'll be keying 'JOHN and boxing him in a couple of exactas with MAMBO IN SEATLE, who is a nice-looking newcomer taking the same path that Grasshopper did last year when he almost upset Street Sense. Good luck!"
Betting the Travers:
Most Certain Exotics Contender: #2 COLONEL JOHN.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender: #12 COURT VISION.
Sending It In ($100 bankroll):
$50 win #2 COLONEL JOHN
$15 exacta box #2 COLONEL JOHN-#9 MAMBO IN SEATTLE ($30)
$5 exacta part-wheels #2 COLONEL JOHN-#9 MAMBO IN SEATTLE over #12 COURT VISION-#11 PYRO ($20)
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